BrewDog’s Bold Prediction
BrewDog co-founder James Watt set some heads shaking at the 2016 Beverages Conference when he stated that by 2025, an IPA will be the “biggest selling beer in the world.” Watt then continued with the prediction that the only contenders for the title are Goose Island, Lagunitas, and BrewDog’s own Punk IPA.
Pie in the Sky?
Obviously, not many at the conference agreed with this statement. While the popularity of IPAs is soaring, they are still only a fraction of beer sales. Lagunitas, the most likely candidate to fulfill James Watt’s prediction, is currently the highest selling IPA in the world, with sales growing overseas.
But Lagunitas is still massively overshadowed by the United States’ best-selling lager, Bud Light. Even with Bud Light’s decline in sales over the past few years, it would take an improbable cut on their end and an equally unlikely rise in Lagunitas sales in order for the IPA to surpass it.
Even if that were to happen, Bud Light isn’t the best selling lager beer in the world. That honor belongs to Snow, a brand sold almost exclusively in China. Beating Snow’s sales is a highly improbable, likely impossible task, especially in the time frame predicted. Maybe Watt’s statements aren’t worth considering as anything beyond a craft beer entrepreneur’s attempts to get his company some publicity.
A Sign of Things to Come
Or are they more than they seem? Even if James Watt’s predictions are wildly optimistic, the fact that they could be said with any sort of confidence is an indicator of massive change to the beer industry. The fact that BrewDog was at the conference at all makes a huge statement about the impact craft beer has had on the industry in recent years. If professionals in the industry can think that a craft beer might be the best-selling beer in the world someday, that is the first step toward making that a reality.
What do you think? Do you think it’s possible than an IPA (any IPA) will be the world’s best-selling beer brand by 2025? Let us know in the comments below!